Possible scenario
Accountability Probe Deepens
15% Chance
The investigation shifts from accident reconstruction toward potential negligence by commanders, range staff, or civilian maintenance personnel. This would extend the news cycle and raise political pressure, but it would still have little direct financial-market significance.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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