Possible scenario
Regulators Open Probe
35% Chance
The most likely path is a formal inquiry by the CFTC into whether Perplexity Computer's access constituted unauthorized data collection, automated trading, or market manipulation. The agency has already proposed exclusive oversight of prediction markets, making this a timely test case.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Technology -0.5%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.