Possible scenario
October Hold Prevails
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the ECB skips an October rate hike after Christine Lagarde argues inflation is rising but not yet entrenched. Traders keep pricing less than even odds of a move, while the Governing Council preserves optionality for December.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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