Possible scenario
Hike Bets Rebuild
25% Chance
A hotter inflation or wage print revives the case for another ECB hike despite Lagarde’s attempt to downplay persistence. Traders rebuild October hike probabilities, reversing part of the dovish repricing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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