Possible scenario
Unions Escalate Action
32% Chance
The arrest wave radicalizes the protest cycle and gives the CGT, Force Ouvrière, and student groups a stronger basis for coordinated action. Strikes and demonstrations broaden from spontaneous unrest into a more disruptive national campaign against inflation, the civil-service index freeze, and the 2027 cuts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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