Possible scenario
Containment Through Concessions
38% Chance
The most likely path is that President Emmanuel Macron's government pairs tougher policing with limited cost-of-living relief to prevent unrest from merging into a broader anti-budget movement. The government preserves most of the €43 billion 2027 savings plan but delays or softens the most visible measures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Finance +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.