Possible scenario
Budget Crisis Deepens
20% Chance
The unrest collides with the government's plan to bypass parliament on the €43 billion 2027 budget cuts. Opposition parties from Rassemblement National and La France Insoumise try to turn street pressure into a no-confidence crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Finance -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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