Possible scenario
GOP Firewall Holds
46% Chance
The new Democratic money widens the playing field but does not overcome the GOP's structural advantages in red states or the previously reported four-to-one Republican megadonor edge. Republicans retain Senate control by defending most or all of the targeted seats.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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