Possible scenario
Democratic Breakthrough
24% Chance
The donor's $7 million becomes a signal that more Democratic capital is entering the map, helping the party contest seats previously treated as long shots. With favorable polling in Texas and Alaska and improving national conditions, Democrats narrowly win Senate control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Finance -0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.