Possible scenario
Curbs Rally Extends
40% Chance
The most likely path is that regulators or exchanges quietly maintain informal net-selling restrictions on large domestic institutions, similar to prior interventions in 2024 and 2025. The rally extends as investors infer renewed state backing, though the move remains policy-driven rather than earnings-driven.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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