Possible scenario
Pentagon Contains Fallout
38% Chance
The Defense Department acknowledges Gov Grok was used in Iran targeting workflows but argues it was one tool among several and not the final strike authority. This is the most likely path because the Pentagon has incentives to preserve classified AI programs while promising tighter controls after the earlier deadly-strike probe.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- SPCX+0.7%
- PLTR+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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