Possible scenario
Successful Energy Strike
20% Chance
A missile or drone penetrates defenses and damages energy infrastructure at or near Yanbu. The most plausible successful-attack variant is a limited outage rather than a prolonged shutdown, but it would still reprice oil-supply risk sharply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.