Possible scenario
Contained Houthi Harassment
30% Chance
Houthis continue drone and missile attempts against Saudi energy and transport targets, but Saudi and allied defenses prevent major damage. This sustains a moderate oil-risk premium while avoiding a full regional escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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