Possible scenario
Verification Framework Emerges
42% Chance
Washington and Beijing convert the secret test-ban contacts into a narrow verification channel. The most likely constructive path is a carefully limited process focused on confidence-building rather than a binding arms-control treaty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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