Possible scenario
Managed Talks Drag
28% Chance
The two governments keep the nuclear channel open but avoid politically costly concessions. This path is consistent with prior U.S.-China security dialogues that reduce miscalculation risk without producing enforceable limits.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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