Possible scenario
Stimulus Rhetoric Returns
20% Chance
A less likely but important path is that Takaichi reintroduces elements of fiscal reflation under pressure from LDP conservatives and growth-focused advisers. The government may still avoid the Abenomics label, but policy substance would become more expansionary.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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