Possible scenario
BOJ Normalization Advances
25% Chance
The BOJ interprets the administration's non-reflationary framing as permission to keep moving away from ultra-loose policy. This would reinforce expectations for gradual rate increases and a stronger yen, with Japanese banks benefiting and exporters facing pressure.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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