Possible scenario
Margins Stay Elevated
40% Chance
Refining margins remain well above historical norms as Russia's diesel export restrictions, recent refinery outages, and strong European utilization keep middle-distillate markets tight. TotalEnergies benefits from the same diesel and jet-fuel spreads that lifted its Q3 indicator to $33.2 per barrel.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Tickers
- TTE+2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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