Possible scenario
Backlash Narrows Race
38% Chance
Rick Jackson's debate absence is most likely to become a short-term campaign liability because the race was already rated a tossup and polling showed only a two-point Jackson edge. Keisha Lance Bottoms can use the solo debate format, Obama endorsement, and debate footage to frame Jackson as avoiding scrutiny.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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