Possible scenario
Negotiated Resolution
20% Chance
After the 11-1 mistrial, both sides reassess the risk of another emotionally difficult and uncertain trial. A negotiated outcome becomes plausible if prosecutors can obtain a result that recognizes the deaths while the defense secures a mental-health-based disposition.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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