Possible scenario
Talks Still Proceed
40% Chance
China uses the threat to improve leverage but does not cancel the Beijing talks. Brussels and Beijing keep channels open because both sides want to avoid damage to European automakers, Chinese EV exporters, and consumer-goods trade before formal retaliation hardens.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.8%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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