Possible scenario
Managed Chinese Retaliation
30% Chance
Beijing retaliates in a calibrated way, expanding trade probes rather than imposing broad tariffs immediately. The likely targets are politically sensitive European exports such as pork, dairy, brandy, medical devices, and public-procurement-linked industrial goods.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Healthcare -0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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