Possible scenario
Republicans Hold Narrowly
28% Chance
Republicans remain vulnerable but survive because the Democratic wave is not quite large enough in red-leaning states. GOP candidates hold Texas, Florida, and Ohio, and either Susan Collins survives in Maine or Republicans offset a North Carolina loss elsewhere.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance +0.4%
- Healthcare +0.3%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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