Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Expands
18% Chance
A historically weak Trump approval rating and a near-double-digit Democratic generic-ballot lead translate into a broader Senate wave. In this scenario, the map expands beyond North Carolina and Maine into at least one larger Republican-held state such as Texas, Ohio, or Florida.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.3%
- Finance -1.1%
- Healthcare -1.0%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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