Possible scenario
Democratic Senate Majority
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the pro-Democratic trend hardens enough for Democrats to flip the Senate narrowly. North Carolina becomes the central pickup opportunity after Thom Tillis's retirement, while Susan Collins in Maine and Jon Ossoff in Georgia define the majority path.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Healthcare -0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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