Possible scenario
Orderly JGB Stabilization
44% Chance
The most likely path is that the fall to 2.94% reflects real domestic demand from banks and liability-driven investors after yields moved above 3%. The Bank of Japan keeps its tone gradual after the September hike, allowing the 10-year yield to trade in a calmer 2.85%-3.05% range.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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