Possible scenario
Hawkish BOJ Repricing
26% Chance
The yield decline proves temporary if markets refocus on inflation persistence, yen weakness, and the BOJ’s September hike to 1.25%. Investors price a higher probability of additional tightening, pushing JGB yields back above 3%.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
- Technology -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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