Possible scenario
Fiscal Credibility Rally
18% Chance
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cap on annual government bond issuance gains credibility with investors. If the Ministry of Finance reinforces the cap through auction plans or spending discipline, the JGB term premium can compress further.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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