Possible scenario
Findings Force Slowdown
27% Chance
METR's strengthened team publishes results showing that leading models can plan, conceal, or execute dangerous autonomous tasks despite existing safeguards. The report increases pressure on OpenAI and peers to extend training pauses and accept outside monitoring.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.7%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Business Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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