Possible scenario
Evaluator Becomes Standard
38% Chance
Ryan Greenblatt's move gives METR greater credibility as the neutral evaluator for frontier-model risk, especially after recent failed sandbox safeguards and high harmful-task scores. Labs and policymakers converge on METR-style evaluations as a prerequisite for continued training, deployment, and government procurement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Business Services +0.6%
Tickers
- MSFT-0.6%
- -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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