Possible scenario
Collins regroups
28% Chance
Mike Collins and national Republicans move quickly to stop further defections by nationalizing the race around Trump, immigration, judges, and opposition to Democrats. Farm anger remains real, but most Republican-leaning rural voters return to partisan alignment by Election Day.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.