Possible scenario
Safety Backlash Emerges
25% Chance
Open-weight cyber models draw scrutiny because the same capabilities useful for defenders can also accelerate exploit chaining and phishing automation. Regulators and large enterprises examine whether security-specific open weights require additional red-team disclosure, licensing, or procurement limits.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
Tickers
- CRWD+0.8%
- PANW+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.