Possible scenario
Offensive Resumes Slowly
20% Chance
After a short pause, Yemeni government forces resume attacks with Saudi support but advance slowly. The campaign remains incremental, with no immediate collapse of Houthi defenses in Sanaa.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.