Possible scenario
Houthi Counterattack Expands
25% Chance
The Houthis exploit the pause to mount counterattacks against stretched Yemeni government forces. Iranian-supplied drones, missiles, and advisers increase the risk that the conflict again affects Red Sea shipping or Saudi border security.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.