Possible scenario
Powell Position Strengthens
17% Chance
Powell uses the clearance to reinforce his refusal to resign and to emphasize that monetary policy will not be shaped by political pressure. Markets focus less on the renovation issue and more on the Fed's near-term policy stance.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology -0.4%
- Utilities -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.