Possible scenario
Political Fight Continues
28% Chance
Trump allies reject the watchdog's conclusion and continue portraying the renovation as evidence of mismanagement. Powell remains legally secure, but renewed political attacks keep Fed-independence risk in market pricing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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