Possible scenario
Inquiry Loses Force
45% Chance
The inspector general's finding makes it harder for Trump allies to use the $2.4 billion renovation as a basis to oust or formally sanction Jerome Powell. The White House keeps criticizing costs but does not escalate into a direct legal confrontation with the Fed chair.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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