Possible scenario
Gradual Regulated Uptake
30% Chance
Interest improves, but actual usage lags survey results as banks, merchants, and consumers wait for final supervisory guidance and operational proof. Stablecoins become an incremental payments product, not an immediate replacement for cards, ACH, or deposits.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Tickers
- CRCL+0.6%
- V+0.5%
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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