Possible scenario
Negotiated Hormuz Reopening
35% Chance
The scale of lost Iraqi and Gulf oil revenue pushes Baghdad, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Washington, and Tehran toward a temporary deal. Iran uses the reopening offer to trade limited shipping access for relief from the U.S. blockade on Iranian crude.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.9%
- Consumer Services +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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