Possible scenario
Direct Military Escalation
20% Chance
Anti-ship missile fire and the U.S. blockade create a high risk of direct combat around the Strait of Hormuz. Even limited strikes would raise the probability of a wider Gulf conflict and further interrupt tanker traffic.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -5.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-5.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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