Possible scenario
Blockade Stalemate Persists
30% Chance
The U.S. blockade on Iranian oil remains in place and Iran keeps constraining traffic through Hormuz. Iraq and other Gulf exporters face a cash-flow shock, while global markets price a longer disruption to seaborne crude supply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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