Possible scenario
Nuclear-Site Escalation
25% Chance
Trump approves strikes against nuclear-linked targets such as Fordow, Natanz support infrastructure, or deeply buried command facilities. This would mark a major escalation, making Iranian retaliation against Gulf shipping, U.S. bases, and regional energy infrastructure much more likely.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +7.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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