Possible scenario
Limited Expanded Strikes
40% Chance
Trump authorizes a broader but still bounded air campaign against Iranian missile, radar, and Revolutionary Guard targets. Washington avoids confirmed nuclear-site strikes while trying to pressure Tehran over Hormuz without forcing a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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