Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, or another mediator secures a temporary pause in bombing discussions and revives a narrow maritime arrangement. The core U.S.-Iran dispute remains unresolved, but markets respond positively to any concrete reduction in near-term strike risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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