Possible scenario
Orderly Exchange Execution
45% Chance
The DOE receives adequate industry bids and executes the exchange largely as designed, using temporary SPR barrels to ease near-term crude availability without declaring a larger emergency drawdown. Because this is an exchange rather than an outright sale, the immediate market effect is modest and concentrated in crude and refining equities.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
Tickers
- VLO+1.2%
- MPC+1.1%
- +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.