Possible scenario
Adversaries Test Posture
20% Chance
Iran-aligned groups interpret the tanker withdrawal as reduced U.S. capacity for sustained air operations across Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf. They probe the perceived gap with drones, missiles, or maritime harassment, forcing Washington to decide whether to restore airpower quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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