Possible scenario
Talarico Edge Holds
42% Chance
Colin Talarico sustains a small but real advantage as Democratic fundraising, suburban drift, and Republican elite discomfort with Ken Paxton continue to reinforce the poll result. The race remains close, but Paxton's negatives limit his ability to consolidate swing voters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Utilities +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.