Possible scenario
Paxton Recovers Late
35% Chance
Paxton uses Trump's endorsement, partisan polarization, and attacks on Talarico's national Democratic ties to pull the race back toward Texas's baseline Republican lean. GOP donors who dislike Paxton may remain cool, but Republican voters consolidate anyway.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Finance +0.4%
- Utilities -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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