Possible scenario
Casualty Record Split
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a prolonged evidentiary dispute rather than a decisive resolution. CPJ, Reporters Without Borders, the UN, and the IDF continue to publish different classifications because access to Gaza records, employment files, and militant-affiliation evidence remains limited.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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