Sanctions Bargain Advances

The Trump administration uses the Lukoil asset deal as a sanctions-relief sweetener to keep Moscow engaged while giving Kyiv and European capitals a way to frame concessions as conditional and reversible. This is the most likely path because it lets Washington test a transactional peace framework without immediately recognizing Russian territorial claims.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.